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$ 20 Billion a year is paid to the forecasting industry!
Tetlock’s study of political experts shows they have poor performance. Human experts are rarely reliable.
Supercruncher’s author: suggests that data driven research tends to work, such as large-scale randomized trials, models generated from large datasets, multiple forms of market research (Internet, massive data storage devices, rapid computation, broadband telecommunication), within 95% of two standard deviations of the mean, the 5% balance generally divided evenly in two tails.
Weather systems show that heavy-tailed distributions exist: a small number have the most impact on a system, are the most extreme.
T. V. Pundits predictions about politics and economics are worst than random chance.
Best performance exceeds worst by 10:1 ratio and does not correlate with experience, but may correlate with greater freedom, privacy, and control of a work environment.
Experts rarely prevent crisis, their predictions are rarely close.
Attribution bias occurs when people attribute successful outcomes to their own skill.
Bias blind spot — the tendency not to compensate for one's own Cognitive bias is distortion in the way we perceive reality.
Hindsight bias is viewing things, which have already happened as being relatively inevitable and predictable.
Motivational bias includes: a) influencing a decision to go a certain way; b) misperceiving an evaluation based on the outcome and tending to be conservative in estimates; c) suppressing uncertainty to appear knowledgeable or authoritative; and d) not wanting to appear to contradict oneself due to prior contradicting opinions.
Self-serving bias is taking credit for success (self-enhancing bias) and denying responsibility for failure (self-protective bias).
The endowment effect is placing a higher value on objects they own than objects that they do not.
The framing effect is presenting the same option in different formats to alter people's decisions.
The aversion effect is not giving up an object because there is greater utility associated with acquiring it or is similar to sticking with the status quo, or omission bias and status quo bias are well-described cognitive biases that can cause lay decision makers to prefer inaction that preserves the status quo.
The anchoring fallacy is when an initial value is set there is a tendency to stick to that value, which is similar to the sunk-cost fallacy.
The availability fallacy having Judgments and decisions influenced by information known to us that may be irrelevant, or untrustworthy.
The representative fallacy generalizing about a population, future event, behavior based upon a sample which is too small to be representative.
sunk-cost fallacy are unrecoverable costs, which are often irrationally continued to be invested in.
Inattentional blindness, also known as perceptual blindness, is the phenomenon of not being able to see the most conspicuous things that exist unless we pay close attention to events.
Self-justification is when Cognitive dissonance- an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously- causes the justification for a negative behavior by either: (1) reducing the importance of the dissonant beliefs, (2) adding more consonant beliefs that outweigh the dissonant beliefs, or (3) changing the dissonant beliefs so that they are no longer inconsistent.
Self-attribution bias occurs when people attribute successful outcomes to their own skill.
Cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling caused by holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously, which usually causes a negative behavior.
Mental Accounting relates to: dividend income v. capital gains; paying cash v. using credit; earned income v. gift income; context of the expense; and fear loss v. hope for gain.
Introspection illusion, placing more weight on introspective evidence or wishful thinking rather than real evidence, which can resemble a blind spot.
The law of small numbers is the tendency to rely on inadequate data to extrapolate, estimate, or guess an outcome that seems to be supported by the data.
conservatism bias is a reluctance to change estimates and practices that are erroneous or counterproductive.
Extraordinarity bias is the tendency to value an object because its extreme nature, which may not make it more valuable - The opposite of Extreme aversion, which is the tendency to avoid extremes or to not believe they drive processes.
hyperbolic discount is when immediate and concrete concerns outweigh the distant and abstract costs.
Impact Bias occurs where we over-estimate the length of impact of an event.
The exposure effect propose that repeated exposure to a stimulus increases the positive affect or reduces the negative affect.
outcome bias is false believing outcomes are the result of a behavior.
The zero-risk bias is the tendency to prefer slight risk or no risk while accepting a huge exposure elsewhere.
Attentional bias is a form of cognitive bias in which a person does not examine all possible outcomes when making a judgment about a correlation or association.
Capability Bias it the tendency to believe that the closer average performance is to a target, the tighter the distribution of the data set.
Ingroup bias is simply the tendency to favor one's own group.
Projection bias is the tendency to assume that others share their own assets.
Trait ascription bias is believing that we are more unpredictable than others.
Egocentric bias is when people claim excessive credit for their behaviors or a group.
Omitted-variable bias (OVB) is the omission of an important (key) independent or dependent variable, which can mean ALL the results are inaccurate.
Bias is normal and difficult to eliminate, and even with laws to prevent it, institutions have difficulty removing bias and generally certain classes of person earn much less than others for the same work. Bias can be cultural, racial, religious, educational, ethnic, gender, political, corporate, geographical, media, advertising, sociological, entertainment, personal, extremism or sensational, and scientific!
Bias is common and some persons rarely get the respect they deserve.