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The following content is considered nonlegal and nonbinding OPINION only, and does not legally assume any entity is responsible for the accuracy of any facts that may seem to be presented by any entity. Rather this is meant to be a starting point of research into the facts or truth. The standard of the reasonable person should be assumed with regard to any possible research into the facts or truth!

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Stagflation is due to “supply shocks”, without a boom there tends to be no inflation due to printing extra money to add liquidity to the economy.

Deficit spending and low interest rates does not appeal to financial officials because to them this is a morality play often where the strong are allowed to stay strong for doing no work (creditors do not want inflation – to be paid back in less valuable dollars.).

Timber can out-perform gold as an investment, partly because you are also buying land.

Leveraged ETFs(usually index tracking) and inverse funds are high-risk investments.

Mutual Bond funds (low-cost index, cap-weighted or fundamental) can be better than individual bonds.

Fundamental indexing tends to not give over-exposure of stocks than can become a larger component of a market due to stock value!

Cheap funds, often no-load funds, tend to outperform hot funds.

Mutual funds tend to outperform individual stocks, bonds, or individual investments.

Wall street traders were popping Klonopin and Xanax, which may have caused worldwide economic collapse.

Companies that acquire other firms usually pay 41 % more than the target firm’s current stock price, but the value of the merged firms usually decreases after the purchase!

Firms have been leveraged thirty to one, investigations gutted, distroying a firm was considered rational (bonuses, huge scale of fraud, miss opportunity, difficulty of changing course, common practice to do Ponzi scheme).

By going after the Bottom-of-the-market, lowest end, will eventually drive out the top-of-the-market competitors!

93 % of companies that have become successful have changed their initial strategy.

What resources are used, how process are used and why priorities are made determine the future of entities.

No companies that do not pay taxes or do not keep most of their funds in the country./strong>

7 times multiplier effect exists for each dollar spent by the government.

The US spends about twice the share of GDP on defense as European countries; most of US spending goes to the elderly (Americans spent about 17 % of GDP on Health Care; net US Welfare spending in about 27.2 of GDP; while it is the highest in France of about 33.6 of GDP and US is the 6th highest; Canada the 13th highest, and Mexico is the lowest of Net Social Spending of GDP.) and defense; whereas, in Europe most goes to Health Care!

Most countries other than the US do not allow the mortgage tax deduction.

The rich usual only use the charitable tax deduction for contribution to health, education or the arts; only about 17 % goes to religious organizations from the rich; whereas 66 % of persons with incomes below $100,000 goes to religious institutions.

A depreciation deduction of 50 % for certain investment is considered a stimulus measure. A 100 % deduction is an immediate write-off for investments!

Economist Christina Romer estimates that a tax increase to 1 % of GDP will reduce GDP by about 1 %, but a spending cut of 1 % of GDP will reduce GDP by 1.5 %.

The Value Added Tax of about 20 % could raise over $! trillion a year in new revenue; the Value Added Tax is about 30 % elsewhere!

Likely tax reforms in the US can only be achieved with a Republican President and a Democratic Congress in the US!

The following could lead to hyperinflation: foreign central banks sell dollars, rise in short-term interest rates, derivative-led chain of defaults, insolvent quasi-government corporations, account deficits warns!

Invest in yourself first.

Board of directors should be concerned with long-term strategy.

Option sales can indicate the direction a stock might go.

Fired persons create new businesses and an economy can strengthen without increasing jobs.

Social trust predicts foreign investment.

NY, LA, SF have the most diversity are the most economically successful; generally, for each 10% increase in diversity net income increased by 15%.

Demand-driven-development is usually more valuable than capital-driven development.

Clearinghouses allow cartels to exist; all financial transactions need to be taxed and done through transparent exchanges create bubbles similar to Ponzi schemes.

Repos allowed companies to fund off-balance-sheet activities.

1 % of American received 23% of overall income in 2007, only seen before in 1928; Debt driver consumption is 70% GNP!

Lloyd’s of London likely paid ransom to Somali Pirates!

Bonuses constantly are met likely suggest to accounting fraud!

Buy after a sell signal because likely the media, investor and board put pressure on larger companies to make changes?

1,000 Americans created $10 trillion GDP over 25 years suggests overly capital intensive companies often do not do well except perhaps railroads or efficient transportation, but these can be litigation risks!

Large shareholders are your friends and owner-manage-founding-famalies-entrepeneurs!

Majority share holders tend to have the best return on investment!

Information rules: "Ignore basic economic principles at your own risk. Technology changes. Economic laws do not."

The promotion of deflated pre-IPO prices is usually to top players in the offering or the sake of obtaining a greater allotment of the offering!

Beware of the hidden disclamers of investment agents.

One employee per a million customers is common in the dotcom industry.

Experts rarely prevent crisis; their predictions are rarely close, so doubt ALL government interventions! The marketplace reactions are usually more accurate!

Doubt intelligence because 20% variation work performance is due to intelligence, and causes 4% variation in income.

High intrinsic motivation of participants in an enterprise should be the strongest predictor that it will be successful.

New tax codes, planning, innovative ideas tend to drive increased investment, or concentrating on primary system drivers, such as education, health, or welfare.

Index funds are overweighed by the biggest stocks in the index, usually the S&P 500, which can have bad performance, and their inclusion is announced early by the investment committee which causes overpricing for the buyers of the index fund.

Morning star ratings of mutual funds seems arbitrary at times.

Breaking up an entity and only holding on to the trademark has been done with success.

Short Squeeze possibilities and buying on margin may be the most risky investments.

Energy regulation, manipulation, environmental complications, reduced reserve requirements cause government authorized drawdown Foreign fraud and/or expropriation make it an risky investment!

Energy regulation, manipulation, environmental complications, reduced reserve requirements cause government authorized drawdown Foreign fraud and/or expropriation make it an risky investment!

Strategy-based investing is better than style investing.

Sell if accounting problems, lawsuits or a major scandal exists.

Growth invest last two years in presidential administration?

Strange, unconventional, even difficult to understand, fads or investments may eventually become the most profitable; these can include new foods, styles of clothes, furniture, gadgets, entertainment or recreational products, media, and especially infrastructure, such as the Internet, or wireless devices!

Leveraging the Internet by economy of scale and margin due to brilliant programming and great referencing still allows for popularizing underused valuable content, WHICH CAN BE A DEFLATIONARY TREND!

OTHER deflationary trends involve the use of renewable resources as power sources, more efficient building and planning, better public transportation, and more secure systems.

Products that used to be overpriced, especially research services, usually involving data or sale of a product or service, that used to cost hundreds of dollars an hour, now are often free due to the internet may be the best investments that exist.

More reliable trends are information, health, security, networking, socializing, educating, resource management, and publishing.

Black swan trends are often compared to rare weather events in that they are unpredictable, have great impact and seem random.

Skimming profit first with the highest prices from new adapters of products due to the long tail still is how new products eventually make it into the mainstream, especially with consumer electronics.

The long tail, Metcalf’s law, and many nodes and connections can suggest the more users of a service increase a product or services value.

Cyclical trends often favor transportation, computer hardware, consumer electronics and component companies.

Growth may suggest addictive products not better processes, location or control of scarce resources, or scale economics.

Dividends may hint of bribery, unpopular brands, weak patents, political protection with unreasonable regulations.

Investment styles may be motivated by: greed or fear; high risk or low risk, high saving or high spending, such as mission seekers; homebodies; timesavers; and experience seekers; Commitment- or mobility-phobes; excessive investing or reluctance to invest; Earning or performing below abilities; and guilt or lack of guilt about money or success!

Common barriers to financial gain are: 1) not recognizing patterns; 2) creative accounting and fraud; 3) basic ignorance; and 4) the best advisors become professional investors or fund managers.

A great product is more important than great management.

Intangible assets, customer switching costs, network effect and cost advantages are indications or a strong customer base.

Companies enabled by technology can reduce costs when new inventions reduced their costs.

Competitive advantage usually happens in a structurally sound industry that lacks strong competitors that are motivated by revenge rather than profit.

The assets the company can be the cash it with generate, the flow of its cash, the returns on cash, and the amount of time it can generate cash.

Price-to-sales ratio is the best analytical for companies in a slump.

Price-to-book is the best analytical for companies with tangible values that are accurate.

Price to Earnings or P/E ratios should be compared in different political or economic situations.

Price to Cash flow is the best analytical for companies that get prepaid earnings.

Coupon yield = interest rate on bond; current yield = annual interest rate; yield to maturity = annual return if bond is held to maturity; yield to call = return if bond held to maturity; yield to worst = actual annual return if held as long as possible. Yield-based investments can be compared with bonds.

No load indexed, Global index funds or mutual funds can be: Asset allocation that can hold stocks, bond and cash which tend to do the best; long-short has maximum flexibility; maverick ignores benchmarks; Covered calls sell derivatives against shares in the fund; precious metals; bonds; Closed-end funds and tax sheltered TIPs can be bought at deep discount; creative or new types of investment instruments can be worth looking into.

Closed end funds at attractive discounts may be a good investment, but this runs contrary to the concept of investing in popular momentum stocks.

Stocks or other investments with strong momentum (part of a trend often indicated by strong sales, or other strong indicators of value or interest in the investment) tend to be most likely to increase in value.

Many (about 75%) IPO’s or stocks lose 75 percent of their value, but only about 10 percent increase their value by about 500% over their lifetimes.

Real estate can have unlimited liability or the mortgage or deed of trust can exceed the value of a property in a bubble or down economy.

Tax shelters can be of some interest to some investors.

Some do not diversify or invest in what they do not understand or are committed to a founder, product, concept or ideal that the investment represents or protects. This may, or may not, be corrupt.

Only large investments are for some who may want insider or controlling status.

OFTEN SMALLER CAPITALIZATION stocks, or small firms, grow or achieve profitability sooner than older, larger capitalization stocks, or more stable industries, or brand names.

The first round of investments done by investment banker, often known as the beginning of the trough (not the J CURVE), is where most of the money is made.

Following an upward trend is usually profitable.

Scarce resources, especially energy, (rather than debt?) may cause inflation, which may cause the stock market to go down.

Notes to financial statements or special events, such as lawsuits, environmental & planning, restructuring, discontinued operations, off-sheet liabilities, upgrading needed, fully depreciated assets, or extraordinary and nonrecurring items and events often need to be looked at closely; Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A; Paper value higher than on balance sheet; good cash flow, such as dividend or good government regulations; new lows, merger, or bankruptcies can be good indicators of value.

Low Volatility ETFs Low-Beta Consumer Staples, Health Care, Utilities, and Energy sectors tend to have the lowest betas (0.8 or less); Materials, Telecom Services, and Technology groups tend to be more volatile; Utilities, Telecom, Staples, and Financials can be highest yielders.

The best forecaster could only explain more than 20% variation of political & economic events, but sophisticated algorithms could explain about 50%.

Indicatiors: Discount & Prime rate; Installment debt; innovation; flexiblity; sustainable practices; employee ownership; long-term perspective; responsiveness to community; shareholder actions tahat tend to cause a increase in profits; political spending may suggest corruption.

Some standard indicators of top investors are: return on total capital;largest traded company are selling at 25% discount to its real value; Return on equity, pretaxs profit margins.

Favorate ratios are: Sharpe ratio; quick ratio; P/E Ratio-multiply the Industry Average times the Net Income; Price/Sales Ratio-multiply the Industry Average times the Total Revenue; Price/Cash Flow-multiply the Industry Average times the addition of the Net Income and Depreciation & Amortization; inventory/sales ratio; price-dividend ratio; Debt-equity ratio; payout of dividend ratio; Price/research ratio; debt-to-equity ratio (D/E); Earnings per share (EPS); Growth Rate ratio; revenue growth ratio; Cash Asset Ratio (CAR); Free cash flow (FCF) Relative Ratio, PEG ratio (Price/Earnings To Growth ratio); book to bill ratio.

Some investment standards are: P/E ratio less than 11; Yield more than 7%; Three-year average revenue growth of more than 7%; Dividend yield of 1%; inflation-adjusted EPS growth 15%; book/market ratios were in the top 20% of the market; low debt; positive growth in sales, increasing momentum in earnings growth, earnings per share increasing; buying by three insiders; be more risk adverse when fed is increasing rates; return on assets and cash flow from operations; Stocks few institutions own; If free cash flow/price and net cash/price ratio are high the stock might be the best; Number of book/market ratio is high, debt/assets ration decreasing, shares outstanding decreasing, gross margin increasing, asset turnover increasing, debt/assets ratio decreasing, cash flow should be greater than net income; Rank according to return on capital and earning yield, combine, choose ones with best rank.

Strategic investing likely supercedes style investing because concepts involving creativity, innovation, large government problems that need to be fixed using private resources are more important than shallow stylistics seen below. See George Soros, John (Jack) Bogle; Warren Buffett (management is owner-oriented.); David Dreman: "I paraphrase Lord Rothschild: ‘The time to buy is when there's blood on the streets.'"; Philip Fisher; "I don't want a lot of good investments; I want a few outstanding ones."; William H. Gross: "Finding the best person or the best organization to invest your money is one of the most important financial decisions you'll ever make."; "The average man doesn't wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. Jesse L. Livermore: "He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think."; Bill Miller; "What we try to do is take advantage of errors others make, usually because they are too short-term oriented, or they react to dramatic events, or they overestimate the impact of events, and so on."; Thomas Rowe Price, Jr.: "No one can see ahead three years, let alone five or ten. Competition, new inventions - all kinds of things - can change the situation in twelve months."; James D. Slater: "Most leading brokers cannot spare the time and money to research smaller stocks. You are therefore more likely to find a bargain in this relatively under-exploited area of the stock market."; John Templeton: "Invest at the point of maximum pessimism."; Ralph Wanger: "Chances are, things have changed enough so that whatever made you a success thirty years ago doesn't work anymore. I think that by concentrating on smaller companies, you improve your chances of catching the next wave."!

Graham style investing: 1) An earnings-to-price yield at least twice the AAA bond yield OR dividend yield of at least two-thirds AAA bond yield; 2) A price-earnings ratio less than 40 percent of the highest price-earnings ratio the stock had over the past five years; 3) Stock price below two-thirds of tangible book value per share OR 5) Total debt less than book value; 6) Current ratio greater than two: 7) Total debt less than twice "net current asset value." or Stock price two-thirds "net current asset value."; 8) Earnings growth of prior ten years at least 10 percent on an annual basis. 9) Stability of growth of earnings in that no more than two declines of 5 percent or more in the prior 10 years; 10) Current price is less than half of its two year high; 11) Current price is less than book value; and 12) At the current price, the earning yield is greater than twice AAA bonds P/E < 50/Interest Rate.

Peter Lynch style: 1) Slow growers (raising earnings at about the same rate as the economy; "Go for a business that any idiot can run - because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.") 2) Stalwarts (good companies with solid EPS growth; high pretax profit margin.) 3) Fast growers (small, aggressive new companies; high pretax profit margin; "The person that turns over the most rocks wins the game.") 4) Cyclicals (whose earnings rise and fall as the economy booms and busts; do not worry about interest rates; "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets.") 5) Turnarounds (avoid long shots; companies with temporarily depressed earnings, but good prospects for recovery; look for a low one with the potential to rise; "Don't bottom fish"). 6) Asset plays (companies whose shares are worth less than their assets provided these assets could be sold off for at least book value; "It's human nature to keep doing something as long as it's pleasurable and you can succeed at it - which is why the world population continues to double every 40 years. "). 7) Product or service that has larger market share that is trending well; "Improved turnout will give parliament and government the appearance of being more legitimate.". 8) Choose companies with a forecast P/E ratio well below their forecast EPS growth rate (i.e. a low PEG ); "If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, it wouldn't be a bad thing. "If all the economists in the world were laid end to end, it wouldn't be a bad thing.". 9) Choose companies with a strong cash position; "I've found that when the market's going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy.". 10) Avoid companies with a high debt-to-equity ratio ('gearing'), especially if the debt takes the form of repayable on demand bank overdrafts; "Suicide is a permanent solution to a temporary problem.").

Kenneth L. Fisher style: 1) Ken Fisher has proven that the prices of oil and stocks have no meaningful correlation; “Your biggest investing enemy is your brain.”. 2) Uncover profitable relationships; Ken Fisher uncovered data showing that high US federal budget deficits have led to above average stock market returns. “A good way to think about successful investing is it’s two-thirds not making mistakes, one-third doing something right.” 3) Examine behavior; human instinct often leads to poor decision-making; myopic loss aversion is a common cognitive error that Ken Fisher finds leads investors to move to avoid near-term losses at the expense of longer-term goals. “I call the stock market The Great Humiliator. It wants to humiliate as many people as it can, for as long as it can, for as many dollars as it can.”

O’Shaugnessy Growth inspired style: 1) Size: Market Capitalization >= 175,000,000 2) Value: find good value by finding a low price to sales ratio Price/Sales Ratio <= 1.5 3) Growth: company with positive growth in the past year EPS Growth Year to Year >= 1; EPS Growth Next 5-Years >= 20 4) Relative Strength: stock whose price has grown more strongly than the rest of the market in the short, mid, and long term 3-month to 12-month Relative Strength: >= 90 5) Buy stocks with a price to sale ratio (or P/E) of less than one. 6) Make sure all these stocks have a market cap of over 150 million. 7) Buy the 25-50 stocks that the biggest percentage price increases last year. 8) Re-balance the portfolio each year to meet these standards: A) Companies not based in the U.S. are excluded. B) Companies that trade on the over-the-counter market are excluded. C) Market capitalization for the last fiscal quarter is greater than or equal to $200 million. D) The price-to-sales ratioand The price-to-cash flow ratio must be in the bottom 30% of the market. E) The dividend yield must be in the top 60% of the market. F) The final results are the 25 companies with the highest relative price strength over the last 52 weeks.

Joel Greenblatt inspired style: 1) Pro forma adjustments: avoid companies dependent on a large merger to reduct operating costs 2) Capital reinvestment: avoid companies that are in decline 3) Threats to key revenue source: avoid companies dependent on a specific customer or contract 4) Cyclicality: avoid capital-intensive businesses that generate high ROIC only during cyclical upswings in their respective industries. 5) Faddishness: avoid companies providing a trendy product or service. 6) Insider selling: avoid companies with heavy recent insider selling, at the last known stock price. 7) Alignment of interests: avoid companies with major interlocking directors, CEO or dependent on government contracts. 8) Value proposition: avoid companies that seem unethical. 9) M&A rollups: avoid companies that have meaningful integration dependency on future deals. Magic Formula Investing Stock Screener: 1. Establish a minimum market capitalization (usually greater than $50 million). 2. Exclude utility and financial stocks 3. Exclude foreign companies (American Depositary Receipts) 4. Determine company's earnings yield = EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes is calculated as the trailing twelve months operating profit if available) / enterprise value (Enterprise Value is calculated as Market Cap + Long-Term Debt + Minority Interest + Preferred Stock - Excess Cash). 5. Determine company's return on capital = EBIT / (Net fixed assets + working capital) 6. Rank all companies above chosen market capitalization by highest earnings yield and highest return on capital (ranked as percentages). 7. Invest in 20-30 highest ranked companies, accumulating 2-3 positions per month over a 12-month period. 8. Re-balance portfolio once per year, selling losers one week before the year-mark and winners one week after the year mark. 9. Continue over a long-term (3-5+ year) period.

Joseph Piotroski style consists of adding up to see if it passes his screen:s: 1) Net Income: pass if last year net income is positive. 2) Operating Cash Flow: pass if last year cash flow is positive. 3) Return On Assets: pass if last year ROA exceeds prior-year ROA. 4) Quality of Earnings: pass if last year operating cash flow exceeds net income. 5) Long-Term Debt vs. Assets: pass if the ratio of long-term debt to assets is down from the year-ago value. (If LTD is zero but assets are increasing, score 1 anyway.) 6) Current Ratio: pass if CR has increased from the prior year. 7) Shares Outstanding: pass if the number of shares outstanding is no greater than the year-ago figure. 8) Gross Margin: pass if full-year GM exceeds the prior-year GM. 9) Asset Turnover: pass if the percentage increase in sales exceeds the percentage increase in total assets.

Overconfidence is one of the most common (and potentially severe) problems in expert judgment; for example, 60% of subprime applicants were overstating income by over 50%!

12 indicators released by Commerce Dept Bureau of Economic Analysis: unemployment, labor costs, productivity, inventory, the dollar, interest rates, GDP, CPI, PPI, ECI, Retail sales report, Purchasing Manager's Index, & Durable goods orders report.

Some statistical and technical indicators (divergences resolved in favor of broader based measure) are: MACD, stochastic, Moving average and price history, Bollinger Bands, S&P moving average, S&Pp verses NYSE daily advance decline, Net new 52 week highs, year to year change in the Lehman USs Treasury Bond Index, and The CBOE Volatility Index.

Down Direction of the Market is Anticipated when: Fed raises discount rate; Money supply increases; Fed does reverses or matched sales; Consumer price index rises; Durable goods order rise; Housing starts rise; Leading indicators up; Personal income rises; Producer price index rises; Retail rates rise; and Excessive inventory of luxury goods and real estate exist.

Up direction of the market is Anticipated when: Fed does repurchase agreement ; Fed buys bills; Gross domestic product falls; Industrial production falls ; Inventories up; Oil prices fall; Precious metals prices fall; Unemployment rises; and More luxury items are bought.

Breakout stock's volume should increase 50% above average, 20% in eight weeks or less from the "pivot point".

Interesting experts are: James S. Chanos (born 1958 in Milwaukee) is an American hedge fund manager, and is president and founder of Kynikos Associates, a New York City investment company that is focused on short selling; David W. Tice & Associates, LLC in 1988 to provide clients with hedging or sell discipline perspectives and recommendations through his "Behind the Numbers" publication.

STOCKS SHOULD EXCEED THE YIELD OF BONDS-Yield describes the amount in cash that returns to the owners of a security.

"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." is attributed to Baron Rothschild who made a fortune due to the panic caused by Nepoleon.

“The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets.” ~ John D. Rockefeller

"Money is like manure. You have to spread it around or it smells." ~ J. Paul Getty

"No one can possibly achieve any real and lasting success or 'get rich' in business by being a conformist." ~ J. Paul Getty

"I buy when other people are selling." ~ J. Paul Getty

"The man who comes up with a means for doing or producing almost anything better, faster or more economically has his future and his fortune at his fingertips." ~ J. Paul Getty

"There are one hundred men seeking security to one able man who is willing to risk his fortune." ~ J. Paul Getty

Companies can inflate corporate earnings by: decrease depreciation charges; capitalize research instead of expensing it; adjust charges for pension fund; decrease depreciation ; change valuation of inventories; defer costs until revenue comes in; play with purchase volumes; own independent counsel, director; chairman; performance, fees, & cost facts; Mutual fund investors should watch portfolio turnover; embrace incentive fees and redemption fees; evaluate consultants.

FINANCIAL REPORTING AND ANALYSIS: "Big Bath Charges” – large charges created in so-called restructurings in which companies overstate one time losses, padded with a little (or a lot) of "conservative cushioning", in order to "clean up" their balance sheets and manage future earnings (when such charges are "miraculously reborn as income when estimates change or future earnings fall short) • Creative Acquisition Accounting – "merger magic," in which companies classify an ever-growing portion of the acquisition price as IPR&D • "Cookie Jar Reserves" – unrealistic estimates for allowances, reserves and liabilities associated with, inter alii: sales returns, loan losses or warranty costs, etc. • Materiality – or more precisely, the abuse of materiality and the intentional misstatement of earnings, through "clear violations of GAAP" by "immaterial amounts’ in order to "pick up that last penny of the consensus earnings estimate • Revenue Recognition – recognizing revenue before sales are complete, product is delivered or where customers still have options to terminate, void or delay the sales.

Investor's community sites are:,,,,,,,,, and

Personality Typing has been done by David Keirsey that can be used to understand investor types, such as artists are impulsive, guardians are frugal, idealists are trustful, and rationalists are skeptica!

Indexed annuities can resemble lottery payouts.

Mr. Redleaf's family of hedge funds, Whitebox Advisors, wrote the book Panic and noticed a default rate in the housing industry's credit market.

Future Value can be calculated at

Return Rate (Discount Rate / CAGR) can be calculated at